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Bitcoin has an extreme potential to hold $47,000 as its support level, according to Rafael Schultze-Kraft, the co-founder/CTO of blockchain analytics platform Glassnode.
The data scientist studied the number of existing bitcoins that moved within the said price bucket and placed it against other price levels. He noted that the “UTXO Realized Price Distribution” near the $47,000-level was comparatively higher than the rest in recent times, stressing that the range prompted the Bitcoin network participants to become more active than usual.
Bitcoin: UTXO Realized Price Distribution. Source: Glassnode
In retrospect, a higher number of coins moving near a specific level signifies more trades. It is possible that traders and investors sold or bought more bitcoins near $47,000 than any other level around it. Given the cryptocurrency’s recent uptrend, it is safe to assume that most trades near $47,000 had a bullish outlook, which made the level ideal support for Bitcoin.
“[We have a] very strong on-chain support at $47k – around 500,000 BTC have been moved at that level,” noted Mr. Schultze-Kraft. “It is important that we hold it; otherwise, we could see low forties quickly before the next upwards movements.”
Offsetting Yield Fears?
The statements appeared as Bitcoin bled through an unaccustomed macroeconomic environment. The benchmark cryptocurrency was among the biggest losers this Thursday as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell ignored offering any future guidance on rising bond yields in the US.
Bitcoin closed the previous session 3.95 percent lower and opened Friday declining further as it logged an intraday low near $46,219. The cryptocurrency pushed against bearish attempts and attempted a recovery above $47,000. At press time, it was still wobbling around the so-called on-chain support level.
Bitcoin fell by around 4 percent during Powell’s speech on Thursday. Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
Traders anticipated that Mr. Powell would boost the Fed’s bond-buying program to longer-dated Treasurys to contain interest rate returns on the benchmark 10-year note. Lower yields have benefited Bitcoin throughout 2020, so it was safe to assume that the Fed’s extended assistance would aid the cryptocurrency’s bull run.
But with Mr. Powell choosing to remain mum, the Bitcoin market entered an uncertainty phase.
“Speculation is harder when there is no clear upwards trend,” said Alex Krüger, an independent market analyst. “There are multiple major market drivers pulling in opposite directions, and/or trades are crowded. As is the case right now.”
“I’ve got bids down to 45k,” said another analyst. “I still definitely lean towards the low being in — this drop doesn’t surprise me at all.”
Institutional Support for Bitcoin
Ki-Young Ju, the CEO of CryptoQuant—a South Korea-based blockchain analytics platform, said that institutional capital into the bitcoin market remains higher near the $46,000-47,000 range. As of Friday morning in London, about 12,000 BTC flowed out of Coinbase Pro wallets to enter its custodian addresses, reflecting accumulation via over-the-counter desks.
Bitcoin Coinbase Pro Outflow. Source: CryptoQuant
“Also,” Mr. Ju added, “it seems most US institutions haven’t sold any Bitcoin since their OTC deals. For example, custody wallets from Coinbase outflows on Dec 23, 2020 [show that] no BTC moved since then.”
Bitcoin was trading at $46,500 at press time.
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